To say it has been a tough succession of months for Alexei Navalny, the imprisoned Russian politician the Wall Street Journal refers to as “the man Vladimir Putin fears the most”, would be an understatement of the most egregious sort.
The 44 year old leader of the political party Russia of the Future and highly prominent critic of President Putin is currently imprisoned in Russia on charges that his supporters, as well as several notable Western political actors, describe as “politically motivated”.
In the last number of days and weeks, thousands of Russians have defied government orders and joined public protests against Navalny’s imprisonment and the conditions he has faced in custody. Navalny has been on a weeks-long hunger strike after allegedly being denied medical care for acute back pain and leg numbness, and the strength of public opinion in calling for his release has only grown as his requests have continued to be ignored and his health has deteriorated further.
Navalny was taken into custody upon his return to Russia earlier this year on accusations of violating parole conditions, having recovered from a near-fatal poisoning attack in Germany in August 2020 that left him hospitalised in the country for months.
This attack on such a high-profile politician, as well as the cynical Western view of the situation when compared to the 2018 novichok nerve agent attack in Salisbury by suspected Russian security agents, has propelled Navalny into the international spotlight, galvanised his support domestically and placed growing pressure on Russia’s government as his plight continues to worsen.
It is abundantly clear from the level of popular support he commands that he is a powerful opposition figure in Russian politics, and equally clear from his poisoning and imprisonment that he has powerful enemies within Russia’s governing class.
The strength of feeling in both his followers and adversaries alludes to his significance as a public figure in Russia, and ultimately begs the question:
Who is Alexei Navalny?
Navalny’s meteoric rise to political prominence both in Russia and internationally is extraordinary for how short a period of time it has taken for him to establish himself as the figurehead of Russian opposition to Vladimir Putin’s government.
Navalny’s political identity has been defined by fierce opposition to institutional corruption in Russia’s governing bodies, having served as a founding member of the Anti-Corruption Foundation from 2011 to 2020 as well as establishing his Russia of the Future party on a platform of “real changes, real reforms” to battle corruption in 2018.
Navalny’s international notoriety and the great popular support he commands in Russia has stemmed from both his significant social media following that has allowed him to reach out to Russia’s youth, as well as the anti-government demonstrations he has organized to advocate corruption reform and protest the Putin presidency since 2018.
It will come as no surprise that this have done little to endear him to the Kremlin.
In the last decade Navalny has faced several fraud/corruption charges widely considered to be politically motivated and intended primarily to bar him from running for high office. He received suspended sentences for embezzlement charges in both 2013 and 2014, the latter of which prevented him from running in the 2018 presidential elections, even after an appeal to the Russian Supreme Court.
The 2014 conviction is also the source of his current detainment. Navalny was arrested on re-entry to Russia in January for alleged violation of parole conditions after he failed to report to Russia’s Federal Prison Service during his illness in Germany.
His suspended sentence was subsequently upgraded to a prison sentence after his arrest. However, it has been strongly argued by Navalny advocates that the release of the documentary Putin’s Palace after his detainment, a programme which directly accused President Putin of widespread corruption, was instrumental in the decision to sentence Navalny to two and a half years in a corrective labour colony.
The situation appears to grow ever-bleak for Navalny. It is well established in Russia that to be overtly critical of President Putin is an unwise decision for any public figure, much less a politician. The widespread popularity of Navalny as a Putin critic has clearly had an impact on how Russia’s government has sought to deal with him, and it may be that his success as an opposition leader continues to doom him to the harshest possible treatment by a regime not known for clemency for political agitators.
Despite the dire nature of his current circumstances, however, what must be noted is that Navalny still possesses a level of popular support far exceeding any held by a Russian opposition leader in recent years, an asset not to be underestimated even in as stoically authoritarian a regime as Russia.
In the last week alone, more than 14,000 Russians have defied authorities and protested in 29 cities including St Petersburg, Vladivostok and most notably in the Russian capital Moscow with a 6,000 strong turnout.
Demonstrators have continued to champion the crucial importance of Navalny to Russia’s future, equating Navalny’s release to a “fight for the future” and “one of the last gasps for a free Russia”.
It is clear that for many democracy advocates in Russia, Navalny remains central to their vision and dreams of a truly democratic nation, and as such they thus far have refused to abandon him.
Will their protestations be enough? Regardless of the romanticism of a story in which Navalny is freed by the sheer will of his support, there is of course a cynical view to take at this stage of the ongoing saga.
Navalny’s own supporters have conceded that demonstration numbers of these kinds are nowhere near enough to force a reaction from the Russian authorities, with one supporter suggesting “there would need to be 200,000 to 300,000 in the streets”.
With many Navalny supporters still not attending demonstrations for fear of harsh reprisals by Russian authorities, these numbers are looking an unlikely proposition, particularly in the midst of a global pandemic.
The Kremlin is unlikely to be swayed by this week’s protestations, and Putin is not known for backing down.
The fight for Alexei Navalny rages on.
Yorumlar