Zahra J Gulamhusein
For many Britons, the iron chains of copious lockdown rules and restrictions have been a noose on the necks of many. While many are cheerful about the announcement coming from Downing Street, sceptics argue that "Freedom Day" is a policy to make us regress back to square one. Hence, we unpack the opinions and facts surrounding "Freedom Day".
It is no surprise that the virus has now reached new heights. Recently, rapid exponential growth in the 7-day average (30,000 confirmed cases) has alarmed the scientific community, with the UK now holding the highest case count worldwide. Yet, sources have stated Downing Street have no plans to retract the freedom. Scientists globally and locally have called this a "reckless move", with the Financial Times calling it: not "freedom" but a surrender. A plethora of sources and well-respected medical professionals have called it a move of moral emptiness.
What has made this move worse is the criticised 'get out of jail free card' taken by the Prime Minister and Chancellor on self-isolation, insisting that the lateral flow pilot testing scheme was enough to keep precautionary measures at bay. Despite the pilot testing being implemented, which would include a 7-day period of daily lateral flow tests, Downing Street U-turned on its officials to take part, as a clear-cut report on its efficacy has not been assured by health officials. Johnson's previous negligence following the pandemic has also hurtled public scepticism from taking this move.
The allegations surrounding leading officials have made the bitter "actions speak louder than words" sentiment more relatable than ever, with the party's credibility lost countless times through copious scandals and corruption claims. Empty apologies and reassuring statements are not one to win the sceptic and traumatised British public over. Despite Mr Johnson's urgence to "do it cautiously", leading Professor Neil Ferguson (leader of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team) has said: 100,000 cases after England unlocks is 'almost inevitable'. This number may double, with SAGE experts predicting hospitalisations acquitting to almost 2,000 a day.
Despite the more localised approach for tackling the virus, the disaggregated R rate previously published by gov.uk stood at a high of 1.4, with the growth rate for England ranging between 4-7%. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago due to the time delay between an individual being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare. Even though these numbers may not look huge, let us bear in mind that data according to the government predicted average rates to be around 2-5% back in November, when COVID-19 was viciously rampant, averaging about 20,000 cases a day.
The PM has been deeply scrutinised by officials and opposition party members, criticising his leadership throughout the pandemic. Johnson's former chief advisor has made many statements that fuel Freedom Day sceptics. In an interview with the BBC, Dominic Cummings had much to say, stating that Johnson was reluctant to tighten Covid restrictions as cases rose last autumn, especially since the UK's track record of handling the pandemic has been seen as outright reckless. So who is to say "Freedom Day" will not be an iteration of previous failures?
The efficacy of the vaccines may be the only silver lining to this potential storm, as an article published by the Financial Times has dictated that the new emerging Delta variant has been correlated to around respectively 96 per cent and 92 per cent effective against hospitalisation after two doses. Four studies conducted in Israel, The UK, and Canada had varying results in terms of contracting symptomatic infection. However, they concluded an almost similar result in denoting hospitalisation rates.
Source: The FinancialTimes, (Paolo Mancini and Burn-Murdoch, 2021) How effective are coronavirus vaccines against the Delta variant?
Yet, despite the sliver of good news coming from health officials surrounding vaccine efficacy, only 68% of UK adults are fully vaccinated. This leaves scientists distressed about potential mutations following the Delta variants dominance within infections in the unvaccinated population. John Hopkins's virologist Andrew Pekosz shares that even though chances of an advantageous mutation taking place are slim, a one in a million chance of an advantageous mutation is still relatively high if the virus manages to replicate 900,000 times. The odds are that the advantageous mutation will occur; therefore, limiting that number by vaccinations should be a no brainer.
Amidst all these events taking place, pandemonium has tacitly made its way back to anxious shoppers now re-engaging in a cycle of panic buying once more. Warning has come, as a record 618,903 people in England and Wales were "pinged" by the NHS Covid app in the week to 14 July. Experts suggest that a lockdown will be underway in three weeks if modelled numbers begin to sore, with NHS staff dwindling to at least a 60% absence due to the rampaging delta variant. Despite the vaccines working effectively, an emerging number of anti-vaxxer groups refuse to take the jab. This comes right after vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi lobbies for the use of vaccination passports for larger-scale events to avoid the third wave. With deaths climbing and 4,658 people in hospital wards, the dangers of a third wave linger.
We can only hope that the days to come following Mondays return to "normal life" doesn't come with heavy circumstances. Downing Street has already succumbed to swathes of public scrutiny surrounding previous policies. With critiques claiming them to be more detrimental than beneficial, we can only hope for a more fruitful outcome to prevail during these pressing times.
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