By Toby J. Shay
On the 26th of September 2021, many Germans will be going to the polling station to vote for their next Chancellor, as Angela Merkel will be stepping down after 16 years in office. While her party, the CDU (centre-right), remains the favourite in opinion polls, their nearest competitor may come as a surprise to many Britons. According to the polls the Green party, or formally Alliance 90/The Greens, are predicted to gain just under 20%[1] of the vote, around 10% less than the CDU and their candidate Armin Laschet. Although 10% may sound like a large deficit, the Greens have demonstrated that they are a strong contender in this upcoming general election as they have already been successful in previous elections. In the 2020 European Elections they achieved 20.5%[1] of the vote in Germany; then soon after the Greens declared Annalena Baerbock as their candidate for Chancellor in April 2021, they briefly pipped the CDU in the polls with a record high of 28%.[2] This makes it explicitly clear that the Greens are to be considered as a major opposition to the CDU and Armin Laschet, especially given the CDU’s dwindling popularity made evident by their significant losses in regional state elections over the last few years.
So, who are the Greens?
Despite being a comparatively young party, established in 1980 and then only first entering the Bundestag (German Parliament) in 1983, they have made significant strides in German politics. They have long since broken the stereotype of being the young, rebellious, anti-establishment activists and hippies of the student protests of the 1960s. As this generation of Green party politicians has matured, the party has earned its regard and has subsequently even served two terms in office with the SPD (centre-left) in a red-green coalition from 1998 to 2005. Nowadays the Greens have become popular among young, well-educated, high-earning urbanites and technocrats which is exemplified by their position in the polls as the undoubted front-runner in Berlin, where many of these members of the electorate reside, and are currently forecast to attain almost 25%[1] of the vote there.
But why do the Greens appeal to these younger voters?
Since the environment has been thrust high up onto the political agenda, helped by activists such as Greta Thunberg, and by the Fridays-for-Future protests, which the Greens publicly endorse, this topic has been a priority of many of the younger voters. In fact, studies show that 45% of young Germans view climate protection as the key issue in the 2021 General Election.[2] This has been made even more prudent in Germany given the catastrophic floods that some areas of the country have experienced in recent weeks. While Angela Merkel has been labelled the “Klimakanzlerin” (the climate Chancellor)[3] within the German media for her efforts towards resolving this crisis, many within this demographic are obviously seeking even greater bounds to be made with respect to the environment. This is, of course, the cornerstone of the Green Party, being huge advocates of the development of renewable energy sources and the reduction of pollution. This is highlighted by the repeated introductions of motions to phase out the use of coal by 2022 and to ban fracking by Annalena Baerbock and her party during her time in the Bundestag. Naturally, within their manifesto there are several policies relating to this, such as proposals against short-haul flights and the increase of petrol prices. However, what seems to make the Greens so popular and set them apart from their opposition is how they wish to benefit from their application of these policies. Not only do they want to improve the situation surrounding the climate crisis, but as Annalena Baerbock promised at their recent party conference, they also want to deliver social transformation and social security with them.[4] In their party pledge they say:
“We can lay the foundations for climate-friendly prosperity by modernising the economy ecologically. For more social justice and recognition, more cohesion in society and a strong Europe, foresight and precaution must take hold after years of a policy in permanent crisis mode.”[5]
This leads us to the next factor which has instigated the Greens to be well-liked among younger voters, which is that of immigration and equality. This is what they are most likely referring to in their pledge when mentioning “social justice”[5] and “more cohesion in society.”[5] While this may be a contentious issue in Germany as a whole, it is often assumed that the younger portion of the electorate, to which the Greens appeal, tend to harbour a more liberal mindset on this. Over the years Angela Merkel’s policies on immigration have been somewhat moderate, an example of which would be when she rather famously decided to keep the borders open for refugees stranded in Hungary in 2015. Nevertheless, the Greens go one step further than any of their opposition on this matter. They demonstrated this in 2011 when they demanded that the deportation of Syrian refugees was stopped and then in March 2020 when they put forward the motion to take in around 5,000 refugees and asylum seekers from overcrowded Greek camps, both of which were voted down by Angela Merkel's government. These actions could possibly help the Greens clinch a few more votes from the younger generations. It is particularly important to consider the make-up of the generations in question in order to understand why this might be. In 2019 the German Federal Agency for Civic Education found that approximately 17% of the population was of a migrant background[6], hence why it is arguable that the Greens open policies on immigration possibly would appeal to this generation, which likely consists of more first and second-generation immigrants than in years gone by. Secondly, the other element that may attract these specific young people to the party is due to the fact that they are able to relate to it and possibly even seen themselves in it. This is as a result of the Greens fielding more delegates of a migrant background than any other party. Representation in this way is valued increasingly more important in modern society and in the response to problems surrounding race relations and integration. As a consequence of this, the Greens seem to be one of the few parties that visibly manifest their recognition of this issue’s importance. Their candidate Annalena Baerbock says herself that she has a vision for a “diverse and cosmopolitan country.”[2] However, this is not the only form of equality and representation which these young people deem important. That of gender also seems to rank highly in their priorities, according to interviews with young people in Berlin conducted by Deutsche Welle. Consequently, the fact that Annalena Baerbock is the only female candidate on the ballot is proving popular with this demographic of voters. One interviewee even said the following:
“In politics I think [we have had] enough with men.”[2]
The final point to mention from the party pledge is that of “a strong Europe.”[5] As is commonly known, Germany is a heavily Eurocentric country which Pew Research Centre ratifies with its findings that in 2019, 69% of Germans said they were pro the EU and 75% for 18 to 34-year-olds said they had favourable opinions of the multilateral institution too.[7] Therefore it goes without saying that any party exhibiting strong support for Europe, as the Greens do, will be popular with most Germans, not only with the young.
Will the Greens win the election?
If the Greens truly want to have a fighting chance of gaining an overall majority, they are going to have to find a way of appealing to a broader voter age range. Unfortunately for the Greens the younger members of the electorate that predominantly support them, those aged from 18 to 35, only account for around 20% of the country’s population.[8] Whereas those aged 60+, who traditionally have more conservative political views that corroborate more closely with the policies of the CDU, make up for just under 30% of the population.[8] These statistics are currently reflected by the projections of the opinion polls, although the Greens have recently taken a hit in the polls as a result of the questions that were raised at the beginning of July 2021 about Annalena Baerbock’s credibility. The candidate found herself in a compromising position after she had to correct inaccuracies in her professional CV, take responsibility for her delayed reporting of her additional income and confront plagiarism allegations. This consequently escalated into a barrage of personal attacks against her which caused her to dip below all the other candidates in the polls illustrating the public's most preferential new Chancellor,[4] even though her party remains second overall in the General election polls. The other argument that her opponents, who are a minimum of 20 years her senior, have made against her is that she lacks parliamentary experience given that she is only 40 years of age. Therefore, if she wants to make resolute advancements to Chancellery, she must first erase these doubts from the minds of the electorate which may influence their decision on the 26th of September. On the other hand, there is equally no certainty that the CDU’s candidate, Armin Laschet, who is currently in the lead in the polls will gain a majority either. He is supposedly renowned for being an ardent Angela Merkel supporter and being a keen believer in integration and compromise. This more moderate approach may lose the CDU votes to parties like the AfD (far-right), who offer a harder line on issues such as immigration and integration which many older and more conservative voters likely desire. This is a conceivable outcome given that it is exactly how the CSU (the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria) lost its significant majority in the 2018 state election in Bavaria, ultimately prompting Angela Merkel to announce that she will be standing down at the end of this term.
Bearing all this in mind, as well as Germany’s long history of coalition governments, do not be surprised if you find that the Greens occupy the Bundestag after the 26th of September 2021.
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1 "Polls of Polls - Germany, 2021 general election" Politico, 25th July 2021, https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
2 "Germany's Greens ahead of Merkel's CDU/CSU in new poll" Deutsche Welle, 25th March 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-greens-ahead-of-merkels-cdu-csu-in-new-poll/a-57327771
3 "Kanzlerin Merkel, Klimaschutz und Katastrophen" Deutsche Welle, 22nd July 2021, https://www.dw.com/de/kanzlerin-merkel-klimaschutz-und-katastrophen/a-58578239
4 "German Green party candidate Annalena Baerbock under fire" Deutsche Welle, 7th July 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/german-green-party-candidate-annalena-baerbock-under-fire/a-58192858
5 "Annalena Baerbock & Robert Habeck" Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, 25th July 2021, https://www.gruene.de/bundestagswahl2021
6 "Bevölkerung mit Migrationshintergrund I" Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, 20th September 2020, https://www.bpb.de/nachschlagen/zahlen-und-fakten/soziale-situation-in-deutschland/61646/migrationshintergrund-i
7 " The European Union" Pew Research Centre, 14th October 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/14/the-european-union/
8 "14th Coordinated Population Projection for Germany" Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), 25th July 2021, https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/index.html#!a=35,60&l=en&g
Image Source: Reuters/L. Kuegeler
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