In Israel, long-time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an unprecedented challenge to his premiership from a multi-party coalition of the willing seeking to oust him and form a unity government in place.
That an alliance of different parties has joined forces to oust him is not unexpected. Political alliances between parties and governing coalitions are a common occurrence in modern democratic systems, particularly with a long-running trend of partisan dealignment spanning back to the 1960s making it increasingly harder for singular parties to gain enough support to be a majority government in their own right.
However, governing/political coalitions do generally have common characteristics that make them viable prospects to form an administration. They are viewed as secure largely because of the common policy positions and ideological overlaps between its constituent partners and because, generally speaking, they will only comprise of a small number of parties, meaning less opportunity for clashes that could endanger government unity.
That these two characteristics are widely accepted as being what allows coalition governments to function makes what is happening in Israel right now so extraordinary, with discussions of an 8-party coalition from across the political spectrum firmly on the table.
What is happening?
Israel has undergone a period of significant political instability over the past 2 years.
Since April 2019, four Knesset elections have been held to elect a new government, with votes in April, September 2019, March 2020 and March 2021 all failing to produce unimpeachable verdicts.
Alongside this instability, and as a contributory factor to it, long-time Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the midst of a criminal investigation on corruption charges of bribery and fraud. An indictment was brought against Netanyahu in November 2019 by Israel’s attorney general, with his trial ongoing since May 2020.
Netanyahu has been a central figure in Israel politics for more than a decade, serving 12 years as Prime Minister with a succession of prominent ministerial briefs before this.
As with all leaders that have managed to sustain themselves at the very top of national politics for so long, Netanyahu has created his fair share of political enemies, being reviled by the left and increasingly resented by the right for his ruthless, high-handed tactics.
It is the creation of such a diverse plethora of adversaries that has led to the current situation, with an all-party “coalition of the willing”, (to coin a George W. Bush favourite), seeking to oust him from power through a no-confidence vote in the Knesset.
The 8-party anti-Netanyahu coalition consists of the centrist Yesh Atid, centrist Kahol Lavan (Blue & White), centre-right Israel Beiteinu, centre right New Hope, right-wing Yamina, social-democratic Labor, social-democratic/left-wing Meretz, and, most notably as a historic inclusion in the context of Israeli-Arab relations, the Arab Islamist Raam party.
An agreement to form a unity government is said to have been agreed in Tel Aviv on Wednesday night following marathon negotiations. Israeli media has reported that the entirety of the deal hasn’t been finalised, with key policy disagreements to resolve, but that an agreement in principle and a power-rotation arrangement was agreed by all parties.
The head of the right-wing Yamina party, Naftali Bennet, is expected to become Israel’s next PM until August 2023, at which point he will hand over power to the Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid.
What will happen?
There is still a long way to go, with a vote in the Knesset not expected for a number of days and lingering potential for the coalition to collapse with the withdrawal of just one of the coalition partners.
However, the fact that this plan has managed to make it this far, in the context of both wider political norms and recent Israeli history, is nothing short of extraordinary.
That a coalition of, in essence, ideological adversaries could potentially be formed as a unity government is a feat many in Israel have long thought to be impossible, with the addition of the Arab Islamist Raam party another Herculean achievement for this alliance.
This agreement, if anything, serves to vividly demonstrate the strength of feeling riding against the premiership of Netanyahu, an increasingly polarising figure in Israeli politics for whom it has seemed that the writing has been on the wall for quite some time, with successive electoral failures and mounting pressure from his criminal trial.
Having said this, it would be folly to underestimate the power Netanyahu still wields with a vote days away and the position of the coalition precarious. Netanyahu is tenacious, ruthless and a cunning political operator who will do all he can to prevent his own departure through whatever means necessary.
All that unites the coalition is a desire to remove Netanyahu from office, and while this may be enough to achieve their fundamental aim, will it be enough to sustain them as a governing administration? Netanyahu will undoubtedly look to test this.
The recent violence between Israeli and Palestinian forces, as well as the strain of the Covid-19 pandemic, presents a baptism of fire for the 8-strong coalition should they enter the throes of power at a greatly tumultuous time for the Israeli state.
Further, a minuscule majority in the Knesset and the prospect of facing Netanyahu as opposition leader will be daunting prospects for the intended new PM Naftali Bennet, who himself will be hoping that Netanyahu will be forced to step away from politics should his criminal trial become a more urgent concern.
As seen with the last “coalition of the willing” looking to oust a despotic ruler, initial momentum isn’t always enough to sustain the unity the mission requires in the long-term, and the group of 8 will undoubtedly need to produce further extraordinary feats to truly bring Israel’s period of instability to an end.
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