Italy and the Draghi Dilemma

By Oliver Morten

Edited by Ollie Lycett (Economics Editor)

Italy is set to hold a snap election on the 25th September, and to nobody’s surprise, it is going to be complicated. Italy’s large multi-party system, political polarisation, and the sheer diversity within its democracy mean that this election will be of utmost significance for Italy, Europe and the wider Western World.

Some background is needed to understand the reasoning behind the causes of the election. The 2018 election saw three main factions emerging amidst a hung parliament, being: a coalition of centre-right parties, one of the centre-left parties, and the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement. The centre-right gained the most parliamentary seats, whereas the 5 Star Movement (M5S) gained the most votes overall. This led to the election of Giuseppe Conte as Prime Minister – a lawyer closely aligned with both the M5S and centre-right. Having served two terms until the beginning of 2021, Conte lost the support from centrist parties, as a consequence of a poor response towards COVID-19, leading to his resignation, and the nomination of Mario Draghi, the former President of the ECB.

Draghi was viewed as independent and a technocrat, being heavily capable of managing the economy, COVID response and social legislation. He led a ‘unity government’ with the M5S, right, and left parties up until early 2022, when rumours that Draghi had been highly critical of the M5S, and of Conte, who now led the aforementioned party, were leaked to the press. This led to the loss of support from the M5S, essentially crippling Draghi’s government to a minority with limited support. Therefore, Draghi resigned, the government was dissolved, and the election date is set for September 25.

Upon examining the parties and coalitions, the main forces on the right, centre and left become clear. The Italian right wing is comprised of Lega, Fratelli d’Italia and Forza Italia, all of whom are campaigning on stricter immigration, nationalist and traditional ideals, mainly influenced by Lega leader Matteo Salvini. On the left, the Partito Democratico, and Impegno Civico, are embracing social democratic ideals, populism and pro-Europeanism. Moreover, the M5S are advocating in favour of populism, Euroscepticism, direct democracy and anti-corruption – views also held by smaller liberal parties.

In the run-up to the election, some commentators have highlighted the rise in anti-immigration and right-wing populist sentiment. This has become increasingly prevalent after Alika Ogorchukwu, a Nigerian migrant, was killed in central Italy on July 29. The killer, a middle-aged Italian man, said his motives were because Ogorchukwu had been begging insistently in the city centre. The murder was filmed and published in newspapers and press nation-wide the next morning, bringing indignation from the public, with the left accusing the right of stoking nationalist and racist sentiment, and the right accusing the left of the appropriation of his murder.

Other controversies during the election campaigning have had a profound influence on the Italian political landscape – mainly the establishment, and then later dissolution of, ‘Alternativa’, a Eurosceptic, anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination organisation. Four days after it was founded on August 1, it was disbanded due to allegations of neo-fascism and inciting racial hatred.

Concerning the wider international significance of the election, it will be one of the most important European elections since the reduction in COVID-19 cases across the continent. The potential election of a right wing nationalist government would constitute a significant turning of the tide of international political sentiment – as generally moderate governments have been elected across Europe, especially in France, Germany and Czechia. Some far-right and/or Eurosceptic parties have also campaigned for an ‘Italexit’ from the EU and NATO. As one of these alliances’ largest and most powerful members, it would be a substantial blow to European unity, similar to Brexit in 2019.

General polling over the last month has suggested a close race between the centre-left Democratic Party, and right-wing Brothers of Italy, with the far-right League coming in third, and M5S coming in fourth. A recent Quorum poll of 1,000 members of the public posted these results:

- FdL (right-wing) - 24.2%

- PD (centre-left) - 23.4%

- Lega (far-right) - 13.5%

- M5S (big-tent) - 9.9%

- FI (right-wing) - 8.0%

- E-A (centre) - 5.2%

The results of these elections carry great weight for the political future of Italy and will stress-test European unity in the coming years, so it’s one to watch out for!