Written by: Joel Nugent Edited by: Ben Moody
On Sunday the 2nd of October and Sunday the 30th October, Brazilians went to the polls to elect the next president of the republic of Brazil in the first and second round respectively of the presidential election. The round system is meant to make the system more democratic; the first round will include a plethora of candidates and if no candidate gets a majority of the vote (50%) the top two most voted for candidates will advance to a second round in order for whoever is elected president to be voted for by a majority of the population. The election was always between two main candidates, Incumbent far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, and left-wing Lula Da Silva, who had been president before from 2002-2010. Also on the ballot in the first round was centrist Simone Tebet, who got 4% of the votes, and Centre-left Ciro Gomes, who criticized Lula for teaming up with the centre-right political establishment in Brazil. Gomes Got 3% of the votes. In the first round Lula got 48.5% of the votes and Bolsonaro 43%, narrowly avoiding a runoff, a second round was scheduled. Both eliminated candidates endorsed Lula, who went on to win the second round with 51% of the votes to Bolsonaro’s 49%.
A narrow victory for Lula and his workers party (PT), especially as polls had shown him winning by much larger margins until the last few weeks of the campaign, but this was a great victory compared to the 2018 election which saw the PT candidate Fernando Haddad getting only 29% in the first round and 44% in the second. Before and during the campaign Bolsonaro had made statements that implied heavily he would not accept the election results should he loose, saying “Only god can remove me from office” however after his loss despite a silence of two days, he said that the transition process would begin. With Lula’s victory confirmed, what is on the agenda in Brazil in the next four years? And how will this alter the countries politics?
Lula’s victory will mean governance in Brazil will be the complete opposite of how it was in the previous four years, just as Bolsonaro was elected in 2018 on a wave of popular discontent with the previous 16 years of governance by the PT, Lula was elected as a rejection of Bolsonaro’s politics. Lula is expected to implement more environmental, socially liberal and more pro-worker politics in a similar vein to his first two terms in the highest office. Bolsonaro was extremely conservative, gutting offices established by the PT to combat homophobia and racism; he had said previously that he would rather his son die in a car crash than be gay.
Lula’s time in office saw the gradual decrease of the deforestation of the Brazilian amazon, a trend reverted by Bolsonaro, as well as this, 2019 Brazilian forest fires were said to be caused by Bolsonaro rolling back environmental protections, during this crisis, Bolsonaro initially rejected foreign aid, adding to rumours that Bolsonaro had a hand in the first so that he could sell the newly deforested land to wealthy developers. On the campaign trail Lula criticised Bolsonaro’s handling of the environmental issue and committed to “zero deforestation”, as well as launch a sweeping environmental package akin to the green news deal championed by Alexandra Occassio-Cortez or Jeremy Corbyn.
On social policy, Lula is expected to be much more progressive than his ultra-conservative opponent, backed by most LGBT groups, Lula in his first term launched a campaign called “Brazil without homophobia” and in 2008 he called Homophobia “The most perverse disease impregnated in the human head”, though some LGBT Brazilians criticised Lula for meeting with anti-LGBT priests in order to appeal to evangelical Christians, who are becoming the fasted growing voter group in Brazil. Lula has also been criticised for reiterating his opposition to abortion in this election cycle, Brazil has fairly strict abortion laws, only allowed in the case of rape or incest, Lula was attempting to appeal to catholic voters, the majority of whom vote for the PT. Lula was also supported strongly by Indigenous Brazilians, who’s protected lands were put in jeopardy by the Bolsonaro administration who had promised not to allow “one more centimetre” of protected land for those communities. Many expect Lula to pass pro-indigenous policy as without the indigenous vote Lula would not have been elected president.
Lula’s voter base was mostly poorer Brazilians, which is the reason why the more deprived Northeast overwhelmingly backed him (in some North-eastern states Lula got over 75% of the vote!) as Lula used to be a metal worker himself, before becoming a trade unionist and then eventually leading the PT into many general elections. Lula is also remembered for his pro-worker policies such as Bolsa Familia, which gave poor families access to welfare on the condition that they sent their children to school and got them vaccinated, as well as decreasing poverty and disease, this also increased education and literacy rates. On the other hand, Bolsonaro drew support largely from the upper class, in particular the wealthier and developed southern states such as Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
Lula left office in 2010 with an approval rating of 89%, however since the brief downfall of the PT in 2016 after protests his reputation took a hit. In 2018 Lula was arrested on charges of corruption, allegedly he had used government funds to renovate an apartment he owned. However, in late 2019 leaked messaged revealed these charges had been brought up for political reasons, soon after he was released from jail and in 2021 the supreme court annulled all charges against him, allowing him to run for political office again. Despite this, many Brazilians still view Lula as corrupt, and so he will have a hard time convincing them to support his agenda, which is already in jeopardy as Lula’s allies do not have a majority in congress. Almost half of Brazilians voted against Lula, and many of them are angry, and are protesting the results of the election, Lula has 4 years to seal the deep divide in Brazilian society, protect the Brazilian environment, lift millions out of poverty and pick a successor to run against the Bolsonaroista candidate (perhaps Bolsonaro himself) in 2026. No Pressure.