The old adage goes that there are ultimately two certainties in life: death and taxes.
This aphorism has, in time, been so freely employed by shameless charlatans of the journalistic creed that it would appear there are now three certainties to list: death, taxes, and the subsequent recognition that there are only the two aforementioned certainties in life.
I regret to inform the reader, should they still be following this rambling drivel, that I too will shamelessly and with a complete lack of originality be utilising this phrase so as to make my own hyperbolic affirmation, though I do at least plan to expand on why I believe this to be a justified application.
For the last 30 years in British politics there have seemingly been three certainties in life: death, taxes, and right-wing politicians being toppled by the European issue.
The salience of Europe as a toxic and politically stigmatic policy area on the British right over the course of this period can largely be attributed to the great strides that European integration has taken from the economic Community of the 1980s to the European Union we know today.
For better or worse, Britain has played a key part in the progression of this story, from digging our heels in against the irrepressible tide, to tentative engagement, to the final arduous, messy divorce that we will likely still be debating for years to come.
Every step of the way, without fail, there has been some convoluted melodrama on Britain’s right-wing over the political relationship we maintain with our mainland brethren, a sordid, tumultuous series of spats, histrionics and theatre that has exasperated our nation and cost several political figures dearly in the process.
Last Wednesday saw the latest episode of this Shakespearean tragedy as another British right-wing leader lost their livelihood to the “Eurosceptic curse”.
Northern Ireland First Minister and DUP leader Arlene Foster was forced to resign following a revolt in which 22 of the DUP's 27 MLAs and four MPs signed a letter of no confidence in her leadership. The unpopular Northern Ireland protocol, an element of the UK’s Brexit agreement which effectively draws a hard border between the country and the rest of the British union, was cited as a major cause of this rebellion.
The DUP and Foster supported the Leave campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and ultimately both leader and party have been undone by the consequences this has wrought, a cruel irony First Minister Foster likely won’t have the humour to appreciate at this stage.
She now joins a growing line of right-wing political leaders to have been felled by the European issue, a dynasty started and arguably spearheaded by the most infamous of British Eurosceptics in this modern era of integration: Margaret Thatcher.
Margaret Thatcher
History will often forget that the so-called “Iron Lady” was originally a Europhile as a foil to Labour’s lukewarm European position, though perhaps the historians can be forgiven considering that this honeymoon period came to abrupt end once Thatcher entered No.10 in 1979.
From fighting over British EC budgetary contributions at Fontainebleau in 1984, to leading the opposition against future European political integration at Milan in 1985, to her infamous anti-federalist Bruges speech in 1988, Thatcher’s policy towards Europe became progressively more hard-line over her premiership, leading to a disillusionment and internal rift between herself and pro-Europe Tory MPs that would ultimately be her undoing.
Thatcher’s Euroscepticism finally caught up with her in December 1990. After an infamous “No No No” tirade against European federalism in Parliament, Thatcher’s Home Secretary and long-time ally Geoffrey Howe resigned in protest with a damning speech to the Commons, triggering a leadership contest that Thatcher would fail to win and force her eventual resignation.
The curse claimed its first victim.
John Major
Thatcher’s successor John Major sought to repair the acrimonious divides within the Conservative Party over Europe, a Herculean task he would get nowhere near achieving. Though he was ideologically more pro-European than his former leader, with the threat of crippling Eurosceptic backbench rebellions a real danger, Major was consistently forced to hit the brakes on Britain’s European involvement.
Under Major, Britain did join the European Union upon its formation in 1991, though this itself was fraught with Eurosceptic caveats. Britain opted out from the Social Chapter and European monetary union, and Major himself went to great pains to secure the removal of the word “federal” from the Maastricht Treaty to appease his rabid Eurosceptic MPs.
Tory division over Europe, as well as a loss of confidence in the government’s economic competence following Britain’s humiliating exit from the ERM on Black Wednesday in 1992, ultimately put the writing on the wall for Major’s Conservatives. They were routed by a resurgent “New Labour” under Tony Blair in the 1997 election and wouldn’t return to power for 13 long years.
Scalp No.2 for Euroscepticism.
David Cameron
When the Conservatives did return to power in 2010, it’s new leader David Cameron had already made the point that he wanted his party to “stop banging on about Europe” to shed its “nasty party” image following its humiliating years in opposition.
For someone who wanted to dispose of Europe as a prevalent issue for the Conservatives, Cameron failed miserably in this regard.
The early years of his time in office were dogged by bitter disputes with his European counterparts about economic policy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis as well as the 2011 Eurozone crisis, keeping Europe front and centre of Tory politics.
In addition, the rise and threat of UKIP as a siphon of Eurosceptic Tory voters, as well as the continued danger of rebellions from vocal anti-European rebels in his party, ultimately led Cameron to take the biggest gamble of his political life, one that would backfire completely and cost him everything.
In 2013, Cameron announced that a referendum on British membership of the European Union would be held by the end of 2017 to settle the debate on the UK’s place in Europe.
On the 23rd June 2016, that referendum was held, with Cameron advocating the pro-European position.
On the 24th June 2016, Britain voted to leave the EU, Cameron lost his gamble and subsequently resigned as per a pre-referendum promise.
The Eurosceptic curse took its third victim.
Theresa May
Cameron’s successor, Theresa May, was given the unenviable task of negotiating Britain’s “Brexit” settlement with the EU in the wake of the referendum result. In a similar mode to Major’s attempt to unite the Tories following Thatcher’s departure, May’s mission was ultimately doomed to fail.
A 2017 general election was held to fatten up the Tory majority in Parliament as clear divides ran through the party over what relationship the UK should have with the EU moving forward. Similar to Cameron, May’s gamble backfired and the small Tory majority was wiped out, making an already difficult task virtually impossible.
Three times May put her Brexit deal to a vote, Three times it was rejected. She resigned in July 2019.
Thatcher, Major, Cameron, May and now Foster. The evidence speaks for itself.
A Eurosceptic curse lies over the right-wing parties of Britain, one that hasn’t abated for more than 30 years and will likely prevail well into the future with European issues still prevalent in Britain's political landscape.
The growing animosity in Northern Ireland over border issues that felled Arlene Foster will likely only worsen with time, and Boris Johnson's own central government, barely one year after agreeing the final Brexit withdrawal agreement, has been locked in a series of bitter disputes with EU policymakers over issues of international law, import controls and vaccine nationalism in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
British Euro-political melodrama likely has a few more chapters left in its story.
Which tragic Eurosceptic hero will be the next to fall on their sword?