By: Zahra Jawad
The British empire once ruled the seas as a mighty force not more than two hundred years ago, however today the United Kingdom stands weaker that it ever has in all modern history. England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland hang on to unification by threads, and today Scotland has risen up against British hegemony that encircles the region. The temptations encompassing Scottish independence has been surrounded by the new wave of neo-nationalism which, acting as the bulwark for increasing the plight for Scottish sovereignty. This occurred strongly following the UK's Brexit deal that came into effect at the end of 2020 last year. However, despite the current popularity surrounding Brexit amongst Britons and its vast array of conservative voters, most of the residents in Scotland, specifically 62 percent, cast their ballots in hopes of remaining in the European Union, which previously offered Scotland the trade benefits of a single market and has contributed significantly to the country’s infrastructure and industry.
The effect of Brexit has surely made the appeal for Scottish sovereignty quite a lot more attractive. A statement released by First Minister of Scotland prior to the UK's exit expressed that Nicola Sturgeon was disappointed by the outcome of the referendum as they were removed from the EU without consent, conveying that this as an undemocratic turn of events. Scotland has been part of the United Kingdom for over three hundred years, yet its unification with the United Kingdom has gone down a rocky course and continues to do so following the current offset in nationalistic climate. Subsequently years after the formation of the Scottish Nationalist Party in 1934, the plight to gain independence became a focal point in Scottish politics. After the failed attempt of the Scotland Act of 1978, Tony Blair’s labor cabinet revisited the issue passing the Scotland Act of 1998 which called for the creation of the Scottish parliament with devolved powers through a referendum that won by a majority.
Since then, the fight for independence has been a tug of war between Westminster and Holyrood, with the current socio-political climate being more volatile than ever. With Scottish parliamentary elections being right round the corner, polls suggest the SNP is on course for a landslide coming after May 6th. The repercussions posterior Brexit and economic downfall following the pandemic have most certainly made the appeal for independence a lot stronger than it was seven years ago. The current removal of Scotland from the EU has insisted a market loss worth £16 billion worth of exports to Scottish companies, and currently the projected depreciation of the sterling pound has aroused economic uncertainty faced in Scotland, in turn affecting the future path of tax revenues. This has been predicted to depreciate real wages, coupled with the current state of the pandemic, has foreseen by economists as to cause a significant decrease in overall consumption. The outcome has made local businesses more skeptic, further expressing the lack of faith and neglect Westminister grants toward Scottish ideals.
The economic health surrounding Brexits policies has been projected to be crucially
damaging to the Scottish economy, Scottish Government modelling estimates that Scotland’s GDP could be around 6.1% lower (around £9bn in 2016 cash terms) by 2030 compared to have safeguarding their EU membership. Despite the Zero tariffs and quotas agreed, Scottish export will now face new non-tariff barriers such as increased border checks and a new criteria for exporting goods inside the EU. The current state of things has prompted the SNPs objective to reinstate EU membership and plans to legislate for a second independence referendum if they are to win the majority within the upcoming election.
Despite the Prime Minister’s reflective stance on the referendum, planning to refuse Westminster to grant the vote, the SNP manifesto makes it clear they will seek to proceed with a vote anyway under current devolution law. Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the current SNP also went on to state that parliament will vigorously defend parliament should the UK take legal action for blocking the referendum bill. Westminster even faces more pressure, as more than half of people across the UK think Scotland should be allowed a second independence referendum. A staggering 8,500 people took part in the survey and the outcome is likely to increase pressure on Boris Johnson to rethink his refusal. The current state of the “United Kingdom” hangs by a thread as tensions seemingly clash between the nationalistic Scotts and the Scottish Conservatives, policy makers predict that the current climate may lead to the further dissolution of the country over the years to come.
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