By Miraj Rahman-Blake (Westminster Correspondent)
Edited by Mark Etkind (Politics Editor)
After just under two months on the job, Liz Truss’s premiership has certainly not been a boring one. Now it is over, what comes next?
Liz Truss was elected by just over 80,000 people (57% ofthe Conservative Party membership) to deliver a low-tax, high-growth economy when Covid-19, Brexit, and the Russo-Ukrainian war have left major fault lines across our economy. The mini-budget, which saw the Prime Minister and former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng “in lockstep” decimated confidence in UK financial markets, prompting a Bank of England intervention on an unprecedented scale. The Bank put together a £65 billion spending package to save the public finances. Then there was a new chancellor, and Liz Truss’s flagship agenda had all but vanished. She had clearly lost all authority and needed to act in the national interest. Recently, that has seemed like quite a stretch for Prime Ministers.
On 20 October, following a meeting with Sir Graham Brady, Chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs, the Prime Minister informed the world that she had resigned. This was not much of a surprise, but it did not give the public the reassurance we needed. In a leaked WhatsApp group text, Nadine Dorries reportedly said that “foisting another Prime Minister” on the British people without a general election would never work, and that the party “may as well embrace dictatorship” if this kept up. Nadine Dorries was Boris Johnson’s Secretary of State for Culture, Media, and Sport, and still vehemently supports him. The Prime Minister did not, however, call a general election; the Prime Minister did not give the people a say. It will be an utter disaster for the Conservative and Unionist Party if there is not a general election soon. That can now only be called by her successor, so who could they be?
One candidate who has reportedly reached the threshold of support of 100 Conservative MPs is Rishi Sunak. Rishi Sunak was Boris Johnson’s second chancellor and was very popular when he delivered the furlough scheme and the now maligned “eat out to help out” scheme, both during the Covid-19 pandemic. In more recent times, however, he has come under more scrutiny. He was one of dozens of people fined for lockdown breaches in Downing Street during the Partygate fiasco. He also came under fire because his wife, estimated to be worth around £500 million, claimed non-domicile tax status to avoid paying taxes in the UK – while living in the UK with the chancellor.
Scandalous as his career may have been, Rishi Sunak could be the obvious choice. His fiscal prudence, which Liz Truss once called “bean counting” is much more attractive than the Prime Minister’s magic money tree. Theresa May must be gobsmacked that her minister was hiding it from her all along. Sunak came second to Liz Truss in the last leadership race, and not by much. It is also important to note that he in fact won the MP vote, and only lost out to the party membership vote.
Rishi Sunak would need to call a general election as soon as possible in order to try to retain some form of mandate. Being the third unelected Prime Minister in under a year and with a very different policy agenda to the one the party was elected on in 2019, his position could prove more untenable than Liz Truss’s. An election may be necessary if he is to last the year. He might be able to unite the party, though that seems unlikely. Then again, this is only one option of many.
Another self-proclaimed frontrunner is none other than the man who decimated the party’s reputation to begin with: Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. It sounds ludicrous, but as of the writing of this article, Johnson has claimed that he has met the required threshold to be a candidate for leadership. Johnson’s legacy will still be fresh in the minds of the British people, despite the attempted brainwashing that he “got the big calls right”. Boris Johnson delivered a hard Brexit, and a sky-high transmission and death rate during the Covid-19 pandemic. He did quite well on Ukraine, however. Voters still hold Ukraine as apriority, but his stained past may trump this issue. He was fined for lockdown breaches and oversaw a culture of alcoholism and partying he probably enjoyed in the Bullingdon Club. He also lied in Parliament and to the British people. So what would another Johnson premiership look like?
Johnson would likely have the support of some of the people he did last time. He would have Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, and Nadine Dories, to name a few. He would probably also have Jonathan Gullis, too. Heavy hitters all around, clearly. For the party, another Johnson premiership would be a disaster. After over 50 of ministerial resignations and over 50 letters of no confidence, the party needs more backbone than letting him waltz back in. He could have enough support within the party membership to win, but that would require his claim of MP support to be true. And his relationship with the truth is more than questionable.
There are already rumblings that another Johnson administration would agitate the British people enough to take to the streets. He could need a new mandate. However, some people have been arguing that of Johnson were to return, that would mean a return to the 2019 manifesto and to the mandate it was given of an 80-seat majority– no election required. These people are misguided and almost certainly living on another planet, or a parallel one. If Johnson is to return, he must fight an election before Christmas. That is, if the Privileges Committee has not already concluded against him.
There is, of course, one more option: a general election now. Right now. It has popular support, and the country needs it. According to a YouGov poll on Thursday, the day the Prime Minister resigned, 63% of voters want an election. The country wants a change of government. A real change of government, not just a change at the head of it. All major polling firms put Labour between 20 and 40 points above the Conservatives. This can only be achieved through an election or taking to the streets en masse. One is certainly better than the other.
If the government had any decency, it would dissolve parliament and call an election. While they dither and delay, people are starving. Children are starving. People will die.
No one can predict the future, but it would be good if we learnt from the past.
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