By Jordan Fermanis
The pitfalls of negotiating free trade agreements have proved to be an Achilles heel of the Johnson government. Last year in an effort to broker a free trade deal with the EU, fisheries became the sticking point in a deal struck at the eleventh hour, despite Boris Johnson declaring there was an “oven ready deal”.
This time round in trade negotiations with Australia, meat is the spark that threatens to reignite Brexit political divisions within the Conservative party and further erode Johnson’s political clout.
The free trade deal with Australia is more significant than it immediately appears. Although the deal is only worth about 0.01 to 0.02% of the UK’s GDP over the next 15 years, economic realities should not belie its political significance.
First is the deal itself. Britain is keen to settle a free trade deal with a soft target like Australia to fire up its post-Brexit “Global Britain” ambitions. If successful, the Australia deal could be used as a blueprint for a similar deal with New Zealand and ultimately a precursor to the more lucrative yet elusive free trade agreement with the United States.
The minutiae of the deal with Australia has already been the source of in-fighting among the Conservatives. Reports of a row between environment secretary George Eustice and secretary for international trade Liz Truss on the proposed deal are reportedly also to include Michael Gove who voiced concerns about the potential impact of tariff-free access for Australian farmers on the British agricultural sector.
But the drama hasn’t been contained to the Tory cabinet either. In April, as Australian minister for trade Dan Tehan prepared to leave for his official visit to London for the negotiations, there was a leak from Truss’s office to The Telegraph. It was reported that the insider told the paper Truss was planning to sit her oppose number in “an uncomfortable chair” during the negotiations, adding that Tehan was “inexperienced compared to Liz” and that he “needs to show he can play at this level.”
Despite the misplaced arrogance, these leaks are all the more puzzling because last year the UK reached out to former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to take up a position on the UK Board of Trade. At the time the government, including Truss, praised Abbott’s abilities and experience in negotiating free trade deals as key determinants in securing him the role.
But the trade deal fiasco also reveals a vulnerability at the heart of Whitehall. Desperate to strike a series of post-Brexit trade deals as repeatedly promised, the Johnson government is under significant political pressure to deliver.
However the British farming lobby has expressed dissatisfaction with the known aspects of the deal. Truss’s guarantee of “tariff-free trade” with Australia has not been met kindly by British farming associations who say it will decimate the domestic industry as cheaper Australian beef and lamb flood the market. Anticipating an "avalanche of Australian beef and sheep meat" as former Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer put it seems hyperbolic, as Australian farmers are more focused on the Asian market.
But the vocal dissent places Johnson in a delicate position politically. Without the support of British farmers, it may appear that Johnson is failing the agricultural sector, a section of the electorate he will be keen to appease in the hope of hanging on to the votes that elevated him to power at the last election.
As it stands the only new free trade deal the UK has struck since it left the EU is with Japan. Notwithstanding the effect of the pandemic, wobbly negotiations in what is supposed to be a straightforward Australia deal leave the government exposed to accusations of incompetence. The Johnson government’s dream of a global Britain relies on what it sold to the public as unfettered access to international markets, glorious and unencumbered free trade and economic prosperity without the shackles of EU regulations.
As the negotiations edge closer to the G7 summit deadline in June, it is time to see if global Britain is the real deal.
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