By Ollie Lycett - Economics Editor
In recent years the immovability and solidarity of the Union – a social, economic and political unification between England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – has suffered. With tensions mounting in light of a difference of opinion over Brexit, the question persists as to the future of the Union, and Scotland more specifically, and whether Scottish Independence would be beneficial and logistically feasible?
The answer is a decisive ‘no’.
One may argue that the dissolution of the Union would have limited negative consequences, as reliance on Westminster has been eased with the implementation of devolved governments in 1997 and 1998. This shift of responsibility away from Westminster has instilled a greater sense of self-sufficiency within the Union’s members. Devolution has granted increased power to local authorities, with regards to sectors such as education, justice, transport and health – so if Scotland were to gain independence, much of the government and infrastructure would already be in place. This could make the notion more attainable, although this view is ultimately overcome by the economic and social benefits to be reaped from continued membership of the Union.
It is important to acknowledge the source of demand for Scottish Independence, in that much of the Scottish population feel neglected by the Westminster-centric government, and that their views are not considered and respected. From this, we must identify a partial failing of governments past and present to govern and deliver on behalf of all of its citizens. Therefore, going forward, further reform may be necessary to ensure that Scotland recognises and reaps the rewards of being a member of the Union.
Independence, however, is not the answer.
Scotland has much to give and gain from their English, Welsh and Northern Irish counterparts on an economic basis. Scotland receives the highest value of benefits per capita of the member states, accounting for 8.8% of all benefit spending in the UK, in contrast to a population share of only 8.6% and in 2018/2019 received approximately £81 billion in public spending from Westminster, meaning that the UK government spent an extra £15 billion on Scotland than it collected from its population via taxes. [1][2] Such a significant volume of public expenditure dedicated to the nation exemplifies the benefits to be reaped, and how by leaving the Union, this extensive fiscal support would be discontinued. Such a drastic concept would only have negative impacts for Scotland, and its ability to support its population through public expenditure would be weakened.
Furthermore, It is no guarantee that the same level of tariff-free trade would occur between Scotland and the rest of the UK after its departure. This could have profoundly negative impacts on the individual economies of all of the member states of the Union. In 2018 Scotland imported £63.91 million worth of goods from England, having steadily increased from £34.08 million in 2000, further denoting its reliance on the rest of the UK.[3] A similar trend is mirrored in its exports – in 2018 a total of £51.2 billion in goods was exported to the rest of the UK, equating to 60% of Scotland’s total exports.[4]
Scotland’s economic role within the UK as a major source of both supply and demand cannot be understated, and so the loss of the very construct that facilitates this free trade – and has done since 1707 – would inherently prove to be extremely damaging.
Overall, the Union provides thorough networks of economic, social and political support between its members. Despite the process of devolution having somewhat eased reliance on Westminster, Scotland benefits greatly from its support, through direct government expenditure and trade. Scottish independence would greatly harm the economic health of the Union as a whole, and would impact all citizens of the countries concerned. Therefore, we can only hope that the 2014 independence vote will prove to be a once in a generation affair, and conclude that England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland really are better together.
[1] Phillips, D. (2013). Government spending on benefits and state pensions in Scotland: current patterns and future issues IFS Briefing Note BN139 Government spending on benefits and state pensions in Scotland: current patterns and future issues 1. [online] Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/bns/bn139.pdf [Accessed 18 Oct. 2021].
[2] www.scotsman.com. (n.d.). This is how much money Scotland contributes to the UK in taxes - and how much it gets back in return. [online] Available at: https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-exactly-how-much-money-does-scotland-contribute-to-england-and-what-is-the-barnett-formula-3233129.
[3] Statista. (n.d.). Scottish imports from the rest of the UK 2000-2018. [online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/348525/scotland-imports-origin-uk/ [Accessed 18 Oct. 2021].
[4] GOV.UK. (n.d.). Scotland’s biggest trading partner continues to be the UK. [online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scotlands-biggest-trading-partner-continues-to-be-the-uk.
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